Steady Rates, Strong Employment: The Foundation for a Better 2026
December 11, 2025
Making Mortgage Decisions Beyond The Current Noise
March 18, 2026
January 28, 2026
Bank of Canada Mortgage Rate Update – January 2026
Happy New Year!
I hope the holidays treated you well and you’ve settled into a rhythm that will ensure an amazing 2026!
It seems like our dear Governor Tiff has decided to keep his rhythm unchanged, as well as the prime rate.
From the Tiff’s ivory tower perspective, inflation is not showing any significant movement, employment is stable, and consumer spending remains strong. Population growth is slowing, which should also keep inflation at bay.
Overall, the press release read with a “if it’s not broke, don’t fix it” tone.
The good news is that this means the market is behaving as expected, reducing volatility around interest rates.
Hopefully, this will give the major banks the confidence to tighten their margins on interest rates, which could lead to rate specials in the spring.
So what does that mean for 2026?
Here’s my view from the trenches; a bit different from Tiff’s and what the media will have you believe…
A New Year & Three Questions
Over the past 20 years of being in the mortgage / real estate space, I’ve noticed that the questions I get asked from existing clients and referrals in December and January often shape the direction of the coming year.
December’s questions tend to be more retrospective, about the year that passed, with a hint of curiosity about what the new year will bring.
January’s questions tend to set the tone for what consumers’ mindset will be for the coming year in real estate.
If I were to boil down the numerous conversations I’ve had over the past two months to two words, they would be confidence and action.
So what am I being asked? Before I dive into that, I think it’s important to give some insight as to how I listen to the questions I’m being asked…
…I once read that the art of listening is not just about answering the speaker’s question, but about asking yourself what the question means to them. What is it they are really asking? Their question is just the tip of the iceberg; what lies beneath is the answer they really need to hear.
Here are the top three questions I’m being asked, with my personal experience injected into what it means for 2026.
Interest Rates
The Question: Where are rates going?
The Conversation: The perennial favourite question. Clients are trying to get a read on what to expect in 2026. More and more clients are discussing variable rate mortgages. Mortgage renewals are also a big topic with numerous conversations about how to structure the mortgage for the next move.
The Real Question / Take Away: The fact that variable mortgages are even a topic is a testament to market confidence. In my experience, people consider a variable mortgage when they expect the future to be better than today. Another point that speaks to confidence is the increasing number of conversations I’m having with people planning a move up. I’m usually the one who has to work that into the conversation. This time it’s the client.
The Market
The Question: Where do you think real estate is going this year?
The Conversation: 2025 was the year the realtor got benched. The noise around tariffs turned what should have been a healthy market into a bit of a nothing burger. Numerous clients and new inquiries were poised and ready to jump in like a 4th grader playing double dutch on the school playground, but alas, nobody jumped in.
That’s changing.
December was filled with strategy calls and January has been off to a quick start with numerous purchase transactions. So far it’s my more sophisticated clients that are jumping in. In my experience, they usually lead the pack by about 6 to 8 months. Bottom line, summer could be busy.
The Real Question / Take Away: The tone in people’s voices when they ask this question has completely changed from when it was asked in 2024 and 2025. At the risk of being cheeky, it has more of a 2012 sound to it. People are asking from a place of confidence and validation rather than concern and worry. BTW – 2012 was the early stages of North Vancouver and Vancouver real estate taking off, 4 years after the Great Recession. Note that we are coming up to the 4 year mark on the Runaway Inflation scare.
Debt Load
The Question: Should I pay down my mortgage?
The Conversation: This one is a mixed bag. Some clients are asking because they want to keep their payments inline as they come up for renewal; others are asking because they are nearing retirement.
Despite what the media will have you believe, clients are asking these questions from a place of financial strength. They have options. Most often the questions revolve around taking money out of the stock market, given that their portfolio has made healthy gains.
The Real Question / Take Away: The interesting part for me is that very few people are asking the question from a place of financial uncertainty. Though real estate has lagged, people’s investment portfolios have seen significant gains over the past 2 years. Because of that, they still feel a sense of financial security, which gives them the confidence to make big financial decisions, vs a shelter in place mindset.
For those coming up to retirement, the advent of new mortgage products is making the need to be mortgage free a thing that “your parents used to do”. The reality of real estate in North Vancouver and Vancouver is that having mortgage debt is a powerful tool for building wealth.
The Summation
When people make big decisions, they often start with “the money” question. What that usually means is they give me a call early in their journey. This, in effect, makes me a sort of a leading indicator!
So what am I seeing and hearing?
Confidence
Optimism
Action
People are feeling more confident than they have in the past five years. They’re feeling optimistic about their finances, and their jobs are secure.
Real estate prices now seem to have a floor underneath them, and the sense that a buyer’s market is coming to an end is starting to become a gut feeling that is creating a need to act. FOMO is real, especially when you’ve been contemplating the decision to make a move for a couple of years.
Though we are in the early stages of 2026, the lineup to jump in on the “double dutch” at recess is now around the corner.
The only question you need to ask yourself is this: do you want to be at the front of the line or the back?
If you need a hand in making your 2026 goals come to fruition, I’m only a phone call away!
👉 Click here to schedule a 15-minute Discovery Call.
The next Bank of Canada meeting is March 18, 2026
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