CMHC 2024 Housing Market Outlook

CMHC’s annual housing update report was released this morning. For mortgage brokers and realtors, this highly anticipated report sets the tone for what to expect in the next 12 to 18 months. To cut to the chase, 2024 through 2026 are expected to be positive for real estate, especially in British Columbia.

Here is a quick summary:

The lack of supply in both single-detached homes and rentals will continue to provide opportunities for existing homeowners and investors. Expect home prices to start increasing in mid-2024 and continue upward from there.

We are experiencing the largest population growth since the baby boomer era, thanks to immigration. Think of what the boomers did for housing; now, when you combine that with Millennials entering the market, you have the makings of a solid real estate market.

New rental apartments will be coming onto the market in 2024, but there will be a gap of at least two years before you see the next wave. High immigration numbers and higher real estate prices are expected to keep rental vacancy rates low. These two contributing factors will allow investors to adjust their rents to offset higher financing costs as mortgages mature over the next 6 to 24 months.

Higher financing costs will drive builders to the Tri-Cities and Fraser Valley areas, which will mean that North Shore and Vancouver home prices will continue to grow due to supply issues. This also represents an opportunity for those looking to buy and renovate. Unlocking value by finding that diamond in the rough may be a way to move up the real estate ladder.

The balance of the report spoke about the economy, which we’ll cover in our Bank of Canada update next week.

Given the breadth of positive economic developments in 2024, expect a return to consistent upward growth in real estate prices, especially in condos and townhomes, through 2026.

Bottom line: If you are considering purchasing either as an investor or for personal use, the window of opportunity is closing fast!

Are you interested in the full report? Click here to access it.